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Carly Smithson was voted off this week.  Although I knew Carly wasn’t going to last much longer, it was surprising to see her voted off in front of Brooke White, who I felt for certain was a goner tonight.  When Brooke performed last night she had to start over after forgetting her lyrics and was so tense after that mistake that her performance was horrible.  But, the thing that kept her in was a fan base, which Carly obviously did not have.

So now we have five contestants left.  Here’s how I think it will break down.

5) Brooke White – no way she can last longer.  She’s not talented enough.

4) Syesha Mercado – not nearly a strong enough fan base compared to the talented male singers.

3) Jason Castro – he’s no David Archuleta or David Cook.  Talented, but doesn’t get enough praise from the judges as the David’s

2/1 – I’m torn on this one.  Ideally, David Cook should win, based on talent and maturity.  David Archuleta has a much stronger following, due to his youth and appeal for one of American Idol’s target audience – adolescent females.  So in a perfect world, Cook wins, but if the teeny-boppers come out in droves, Archuleta wins it all.  Either way, both David’s are going to have stellar careers.